Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1393 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1393 LGB 07:50 → SJC 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2578 LGB 19:00 → SJC 20:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1393 Southwest	LGB 07:50	SJC 09:15	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3804 Southwest	LGB 12:05	SJC 13:30	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2577 Southwest	LGB 16:40	SJC 18:05	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2578 Southwest	LGB 19:00	SJC 20:25	25%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON