Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3755 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3755 LGB 06:55 → SLC 09:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1655 LGB 15:55 → SLC 18:47 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3755 Southwest	LGB 06:55	SLC 09:49	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1169 Delta	LGB 06:57	SLC 09:47	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	LGB 13:00	SLC 15:49	20%	5%	0.7%	87%
OO 144 SkyWest	LGB 16:47	SLC 19:43	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 1655 Southwest	LGB 15:55	SLC 18:47	31%	10%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON