Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2587 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2587 LIH 08:20 → HNL 09:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1104 LIH 14:54 → HNL 15:47 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2587 Southwest	LIH 08:20	HNL 09:15	3%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1004 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 06:00	HNL 06:36	6%	2%	1.9%	95%
WN 2588 Southwest	LIH 11:50	HNL 12:45	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1024 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:22	HNL 08:59	11%	3%	1.9%	87%
WN 2589 Southwest	LIH 15:45	HNL 16:40	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2590 Southwest	LIH 19:05	HNL 20:00	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1154 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 18:22	HNL 19:15	17%	7%	1.8%	78%
AS 1034 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:04	HNL 09:42	18%	5%	1.7%	88%
AS 1054 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:20	HNL 11:13	20%	5%	1.9%	84%
AS 1144 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:50	HNL 18:43	20%	7%	1.6%	78%
AS 1044 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:46	HNL 10:24	21%	5%	1.7%	85%
AS 1134 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:00	HNL 17:53	21%	9%	1.6%	77%
AS 1064 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:01	HNL 11:54	21%	5%	1.9%	77%
AS 1074 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:48	HNL 12:41	22%	5%	1.9%	79%
AS 1124 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:13	HNL 17:06	22%	9%	1.9%	77%
AS 1174 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:55	HNL 20:48	24%	8%	1.6%	83%
AS 1164 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:15	HNL 20:08	25%	8%	1.7%	78%
AS 1184 Alaska	LIH 20:46	HNL 21:39	25%	8%	1.7%	no record
AS 1094 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:25	HNL 14:18	26%	9%	2.0%	53%
AS 1114 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:43	HNL 16:36	26%	9%	1.9%	72%
AS 1084 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:40	HNL 13:33	27%	7%	1.9%	74%
AS 1104 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:54	HNL 15:47	29%	10%	2.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON