Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	17%	6%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 25m Honolulu	HNL 08:01 → KOA 09:03AS 1048	3h 03m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:55 → OGG 11:03AS 1150	3h 00m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 44m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 11:04 → KOA 12:06AS 1088	3h 44m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 14:54 → HNL 15:47AS 1104	2h 58m Honolulu	HNL 18:45 → KOA 19:31AS 1168	4h 37m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 13:29 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	4h 45m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034	1h 53m Honolulu	HNL 11:35 → KOA 12:37AS 1098	3h 33m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 12:40 → HNL 13:33AS 1084	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 17:30 → KOA 18:16AS 1158	5h 36m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:00 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	3h 10m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	4h 50m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:43 → HNL 16:36AS 1114	54m Honolulu	HNL 17:30 → KOA 18:16AS 1158	2h 33m	65%	52%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:20 → HNL 11:13AS 1054	48m Honolulu	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	2h 43m	49%	39%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:48 → HNL 12:41AS 1074	48m Honolulu	HNL 13:29 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	2h 43m	45%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON