Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2591 Southwest	LIH 20:30	LAS 05:05	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 19:55 → HNL 20:48AS 1174	2h 32m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	9h 08m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 01m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 24m	100%	68%
United Details →	LIH 12:47 → SFO 20:50UA 1112	2h 00m San Francisco	SFO 22:50 → LAS 00:45 +1UA 2400	8h 58m	99%	67%
United Details →	LIH 13:01 → LAX 21:40UA 1296	1h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 1546	8h 20m	97%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON