Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1296 at 13:01 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1296 LIH 13:01 → LAX 21:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 964 LIH 14:18 → LAX 22:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1296 United Flight history →	LIH 13:01	LAX 21:40	16%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 435 Delta Flight history →	LIH 20:31	LAX 05:00	17%	8%	0.8%	92%
AA 266 American Flight history →	LIH 13:19	LAX 22:00	27%	8%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 964 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:18	LAX 22:42	31%	9%	1.2%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:55 → OGG 11:03AS 1150	1h 16m Kahului	OGG 12:19 → LAX 20:22AS 981	7h 27m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034	1h 21m Honolulu	HNL 11:03 → LAX 19:34AS 878	7h 30m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON