Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1685 at 22:44 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1685 LIH 22:44 → SFO 06:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 788 LIH 15:43 → SFO 23:56 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1685 United Flight history →	LIH 22:44	SFO 06:56	10%	5%	0.8%	95%
UA 1112 United Flight history →	LIH 12:47	SFO 20:50	16%	7%	0.8%	90%
AS 788 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:43	SFO 23:56	24%	11%	0.9%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 12:40 → HNL 13:33AS 1084	1h 16m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → SFO 22:49AS 812	7h 09m	87%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON