Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:46, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 966 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:57	SMF 22:21	23%	7%	0.8%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:55 → OGG 11:03AS 1150	2h 52m Kahului	OGG 13:55 → SMF 21:57AS 960	9h 02m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 14m Honolulu	HNL 12:13 → SMF 20:17AS 820	8h 55m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	1h 16m San Diego	SAN 20:40 → SMF 22:19AS 428	8h 33m	95%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON