tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2594 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2594 Southwest LIT 08:10 BNA 09:33 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1389 Southwest LIT 17:25 BNA 18:48 25% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 08m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 6h 57m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 13:18 → BNA 13:49AA 538 6h 40m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 59m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → LIT 17:14 → ATL 19:58DL 3025 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 01m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → LIT 07:11 → LGA 11:05DL 4960 · flown by Endeavor 2h 50m New York LGA 13:55 → BNA 15:31DL 2748 8h 20m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:31 → DFW 06:58AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:22 → BNA 12:15AA 1396 6h 44m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy 2h 49m Chicago ORD 11:31 → BNA 13:12AA 2362 6h 41m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 11:13 → ORD 13:15UA 4410 · flown by GoJet 1h 07m Chicago ORD 14:22 → BNA 16:11UA 2142 4h 58m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON