Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3860 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3860 LIT 05:07 → CLT 08:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5672 LIT 18:37 → CLT 21:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3860 Envoy	LIT 05:07	CLT 08:07	11%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 4158 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:09	CLT 10:18	11%	4%	1.8%	94%
AA 4146 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:24	CLT 16:33	14%	4%	0.9%	85%
OO 4969 SkyWest	LIT 09:12	CLT 12:11	20%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 5672 American flown by PSA Flight history →	LIT 18:37	CLT 21:44	23%	8%	1.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON