Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1725 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1725 LIT 09:50 → DEN 11:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5429 LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1725 Southwest	LIT 09:50	DEN 11:10	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1910 United	LIT 08:55	DEN 10:16	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 4686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 13:35	DEN 15:04	23%	8%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
UA 5429 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 16:39	DEN 18:25	40%	12%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON