Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4049 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4049 LIT 05:31 → DFW 06:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3674 LIT 19:47 → DFW 21:14 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:31	DFW 06:58	9%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 3589 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:11	DFW 08:38	19%	6%	1.1%	77%
OH 5599 PSA	LIT 11:43	DFW 13:12	19%	11%	1.5%	no record
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:57	DFW 10:23	20%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:38	DFW 15:04	20%	6%	0.9%	68%
MQ 3505 Envoy	LIT 18:44	DFW 20:11	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3520 Envoy	LIT 17:28	DFW 18:55	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	LIT 16:28	DFW 18:00	30%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 3674 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:47	DFW 21:14	30%	6%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON