tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2623 at 14:15, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2623 Southwest LIT 14:15 LAS 15:38 19% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 35m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 08m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 08m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 15m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 09m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:31 → DFW 06:58AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550 6h 07m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → LIT 08:15 → PHX 09:16AA 4323 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 11:04 → LAS 12:22AA 457 6h 07m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:27 → LAS 19:47DL 919 9h 57m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy 1h 25m Charlotte CLT 11:43 → LAS 13:22AA 2470 8h 13m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Denver DEN 19:55 → LAS 20:55UA 1953 6h 16m 73% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON