Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4656 at 07:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4656 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LIT 07:00	LGA 10:59	10%	4%	1.0%	86%
DL 4960 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 07:11	LGA 11:05	30%	14%	4.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 17m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	7h 03m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 23m	98%	77%
American Details →	LIT 05:31 → DFW 06:58AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056	6h 29m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	6h 25m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 37m	98%	72%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 01m Houston	IAH 09:48 → LGA 14:29UA 678	6h 24m	94%	71%
American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 13:21 → LGA 15:24AA 2927	7h 15m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LIT 07:11 → DFW 08:38AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:25 → LGA 13:54AA 2178	5h 43m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON