Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3656 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 3656 LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest MQ 3663 LIT 19:30 → ORD 21:27 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3656 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:31	ORD 08:42	14%	5%	1.0%	78%
MQ 3588 Envoy	LIT 12:16	ORD 14:19	34%	10%	2.5%	no record
MQ 3663 Envoy	LIT 19:30	ORD 21:27	49%	16%	4.8%	no record
UA 4410 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 11:13	ORD 13:15	32%	15%	2.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON