tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4323 at 08:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4323 American flown by Envoy Flight history → LIT 08:15 PHX 09:16 14% 4% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 38m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:31 → DFW 06:58AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → PHX 10:16AA 2905 6h 45m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 7h 47m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa 2h 58m Houston IAH 14:13 → PHX 15:03UA 1798 7h 35m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366 6h 51m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 53m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 5h 29m 93% 73%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:11 → DFW 08:38AA 3589 · flown by Envoy 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:05AA 336 7h 54m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → LIT 12:00 → IAH 13:37UA 4830 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 10m Houston IAH 16:47 → PHX 17:40UA 1478 7h 40m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Denver DEN 19:44 → PHX 20:44UA 2655 6h 05m 71% 39%
UnitedDetails → LIT 11:13 → ORD 13:15UA 4410 · flown by GoJet 57m Chicago ORD 14:12 → PHX 16:00UA 1706 6h 47m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON