tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4052 at 17:55, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4052 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LIT 17:55 SLC 20:17 17% 8% 1.7% 95%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 45m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 03m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:31 → DFW 06:59AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:43 → SLC 10:37AA 1878 6h 06m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → LIT 08:15 → PHX 09:17AA 4323 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 88% 73%
DeltaDetails → LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 7h 24m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:11 → DFW 08:39AA 3589 · flown by Envoy 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:32 → SLC 13:24AA 1871 7h 13m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy 1h 39m Chicago ORD 10:21 → SLC 12:52AA 3258 7h 21m 95% 65%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:36 → ORD 09:46UA 4528 · flown by GoJet 2h 59m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 8h 46m 96% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LIT 19:47 → DFW 21:15AA 3674 · flown by Envoy 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:20 → SLC 00:03 +1AA 2507 5h 16m 75% 35%
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 58m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 5h 17m 59% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON