Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 447 at 10:10, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 447 Southwest	MAF 10:10	AUS 11:30	8%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456	5h 10m	93%	84%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	5h 52m	98%	77%
American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:37 → AUS 08:49AA 1643	3h 49m	95%	76%
American Details →	MAF 07:01 → DFW 08:26AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → AUS 12:12AA 1070	5h 11m	96%	70%
United Details →	MAF 17:13 → IAH 18:55UA 4001 · flown by Mesa	3h 20m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	5h 59m	99%	69%
United Details →	MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa	2h 43m Houston	IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711	5h 30m	97%	68%
American Details →	MAF 08:07 → DFW 09:37AA 3352 · flown by Envoy	2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:32 → AUS 13:41AA 1852	5h 34m	99%	65%
American Details →	MAF 10:18 → DFW 11:44AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:30 → AUS 14:42AA 1073	4h 24m	94%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest	48m Denver	DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899	5h 03m	75%	50%
American Details →	MAF 10:18 → DFW 11:44AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:32 → AUS 13:41AA 1852	3h 23m	73%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON