Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4075 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4075 MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3653 MAF 17:23 → DFW 18:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4075 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 05:00	DFW 06:20	8%	5%	2.3%	91%
MQ 3698 Envoy	MAF 05:56	DFW 07:22	8%	5%	2.3%	no record
AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 10:18	DFW 11:44	10%	5%	2.3%	90%
AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:01	DFW 08:26	11%	8%	1.8%	90%
AA 3352 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 08:07	DFW 09:37	12%	5%	2.0%	88%
MQ 3511 Envoy	MAF 11:48	DFW 13:14	14%	5%	2.6%	no record
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 21:15	DFW 22:28	17%	6%	3.3%	82%
MQ 3512 Envoy	MAF 14:30	DFW 16:00	17%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 6199 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:27	DFW 19:52	23%	11%	2.5%	60%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DFW 18:49	23%	8%	3.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON