Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2787 at 06:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2787 MAF 06:57 → IAH 08:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2787 United	MAF 06:57	IAH 08:34	11%	7%	1.4%	no record
UA 4017 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MAF 19:13	IAH 20:55	12%	8%	0.5%	88%
UA 4011 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MAF 11:57	IAH 13:37	12%	5%	1.5%	88%
UA 6260 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MAF 09:37	IAH 11:15	14%	6%	0.4%	86%
UA 4001 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MAF 17:13	IAH 18:55	25%	10%	1.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON