Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1394 at 14:05, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1394 Southwest	MAF 14:05	LAS 14:30	25%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316	5h 02m	94%	84%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 00m	98%	73%
American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550	6h 38m	99%	73%
United Details →	MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa	2h 58m Houston	IAH 16:35 → LAS 17:48UA 2190	7h 51m	98%	68%
American Details →	MAF 09:20 → PHX 09:23AA 4939 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Phoenix	PHX 11:04 → LAS 12:22AA 457	5h 02m	87%	63%
American Details →	MAF 07:01 → DFW 08:26AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:37 → LAS 10:27AA 1494	5h 26m	91%	61%
American Details →	MAF 08:07 → DFW 09:37AA 3352 · flown by Envoy	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777	6h 59m	99%	57%
American Details →	MAF 10:18 → DFW 11:44AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376	6h 10m	95%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON