tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4939 at 09:20, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4939 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MAF 09:20 PHX 09:23 17% 9% 1.0% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:04UA 1782 6h 59m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → PHX 10:16AA 2905 7h 16m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MAF 05:00 → IAH 06:41UA 6351 · flown by Mesa 1h 31m Houston IAH 08:12 → PHX 09:03UA 2614 6h 03m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:07 → DFW 09:38AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:05AA 336 6h 58m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → MAF 11:56 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 16:47 → PHX 17:40UA 1478 7h 44m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → MAF 14:16 → IAH 16:11UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 3h 42m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 8h 26m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → MAF 07:01 → DFW 08:26AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:42 → PHX 12:10AA 359 7h 09m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → MAF 10:18 → DFW 11:45AA 3643 · flown by Envoy 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:48 → PHX 14:28AA 1548 6h 10m 96% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 4h 50m 74% 50%
UnitedDetails → MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25UA 5472 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Denver DEN 19:44 → PHX 20:44UA 2655 5h 21m 75% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON