Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1204 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1204 MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 858 MCI 17:10 → ATL 20:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1204 Delta Flight history →	MCI 05:39	ATL 08:43	4%	3%	1.5%	94%
DL 1212 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	ATL 10:03	6%	3%	2.5%	94%
DL 3110 Delta Flight history →	MCI 08:00	ATL 11:01	6%	3%	1.8%	90%
DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:43	ATL 13:47	7%	3%	1.5%	94%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:16	ATL 15:23	8%	3%	1.5%	91%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	MCI 13:18	ATL 16:26	10%	4%	1.4%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:38	ATL 18:48	12%	4%	1.4%	86%
DL 1470 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:40	ATL 21:54	16%	6%	1.6%	89%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:40	ATL 20:54	16%	6%	1.5%	87%
WN 858 Southwest	MCI 17:10	ATL 20:28	20%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON