Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3455 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3455 MCI 05:30 → AUS 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2609 MCI 19:16 → AUS 21:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3455 Southwest	MCI 05:30	AUS 07:32	4%	1%	1.6%	no record
DL 3650 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:59	AUS 12:02	17%	5%	2.8%	93%
WN 2632 Southwest	MCI 14:25	AUS 16:26	20%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:57	AUS 22:00	24%	9%	1.7%	67%
WN 2609 Southwest	MCI 19:16	AUS 21:19	26%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON