Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1630 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1630 MCI 05:03 → CLT 08:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1003 MCI 18:01 → CLT 21:18 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1630 American	MCI 05:03	CLT 08:20	8%	4%	3.8%	no record
AA 1297 American Flight history →	MCI 06:31	CLT 10:00	9%	5%	5.1%	93%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 09:11	CLT 12:28	14%	5%	3.7%	84%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	MCI 14:04	CLT 17:29	21%	7%	2.3%	76%
AA 1003 American Flight history →	MCI 18:01	CLT 21:18	29%	9%	2.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON