Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1318 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1318 MCI 06:25 → DAL 08:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2644 MCI 19:35 → DAL 21:17 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1318 Southwest	MCI 06:25	DAL 08:06	5%	1%	3.6%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	MCI 10:40	DAL 12:22	9%	2%	1.5%	no record
WN 294 Southwest	MCI 09:30	DAL 11:12	9%	2%	2.3%	no record
WN 2643 Southwest	MCI 12:50	DAL 14:33	12%	3%	1.5%	no record
WN 187 Southwest	MCI 15:05	DAL 16:48	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 4147 Southwest	MCI 20:45	DAL 22:28	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2644 Southwest	MCI 19:35	DAL 21:17	28%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON