Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1078 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1078 MCI 08:15 → DCA 11:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3681 MCI 19:25 → DCA 23:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1078 Southwest	MCI 08:15	DCA 11:51	8%	3%	2.4%	no record
OH 5644 PSA	MCI 07:10	DCA 10:51	10%	5%	5.2%	no record
AA 2853 American	MCI 10:06	DCA 13:49	15%	6%	1.8%	no record
WN 1663 Southwest	MCI 12:15	DCA 15:51	18%	5%	1.8%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	MCI 16:35	DCA 20:29	24%	11%	4.5%	no record
WN 3681 Southwest	MCI 19:25	DCA 23:00	29%	11%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON