Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2621 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2621 MCI 06:55 → DEN 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1737 MCI 17:21 → DEN 18:12 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2621 Southwest	MCI 06:55	DEN 07:46	5%	2%	3.1%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	7%	3%	2.3%	97%
WN 2081 Southwest	MCI 10:20	DEN 11:11	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 2622 Southwest	MCI 08:55	DEN 09:44	10%	3%	2.2%	no record
OO 4761 SkyWest	MCI 11:40	DEN 12:57	11%	7%	1.4%	no record
WN 574 Southwest	MCI 11:50	DEN 12:41	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 1384 United Flight history →	MCI 08:50	DEN 09:41	14%	5%	1.8%	66%
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:32	DEN 14:27	20%	8%	1.5%	88%
WN 3885 Southwest	MCI 21:50	DEN 22:41	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 5684 SkyWest	MCI 19:17	DEN 20:32	25%	11%	1.3%	no record
WN 203 Southwest	MCI 14:15	DEN 15:05	26%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 290 Southwest	MCI 16:01	DEN 16:52	33%	11%	1.0%	no record
F9 4827 Frontier	MCI 20:22	DEN 21:19	35%	11%	1.3%	no record
WN 1839 Southwest	MCI 17:51	DEN 18:40	40%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 1737 United	MCI 17:21	DEN 18:12	43%	15%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON