Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1256 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1256 MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2761 MCI 17:40 → DTW 20:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1256 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:25	DTW 09:23	5%	3%	2.1%	95%
DL 2826 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:32	DTW 13:30	8%	3%	1.4%	87%
DL 2741 Delta Flight history →	MCI 14:10	DTW 17:07	13%	4%	1.5%	87%
DL 2761 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:40	DTW 20:37	18%	6%	1.4%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON