tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1813 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1813 United MCI 06:12 EWR 10:12 9% 4% 3.8% no record
YX 3514 Republic MCI 15:25 EWR 19:49 26% 8% 2.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 42m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 31m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → EWR 12:47DL 2895 5h 24m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 6h 52m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 16m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 6h 24m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa 2h 42m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 8h 41m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 7h 40m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 14:20 → PHX 15:23AA 2101 47m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 39m 74% 45%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:54DL 1470 46m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 5h 18m 67% 45%
UnitedDetails → MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303 57m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 5h 12m 48% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON