tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1572 United MCI 11:41 IAD 15:14 11% 4% 1.8% no record
YX 3546 Republic MCI 17:40 IAD 21:16 20% 4% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444 5h 02m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 26m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 6h 39m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 1h 38m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 09m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384 2h 45m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 08m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695 5h 29m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303 1h 09m Chicago ORD 21:42 → IAD 00:35 +1UA 1922 4h 54m 64% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON