Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 740 MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 594 MCI 08:13 → IAH 10:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 740 United Flight history →	MCI 06:16	IAH 08:25	12%	4%	4.4%	91%
OO 5305 SkyWest	MCI 15:29	IAH 17:58	15%	10%	1.5%	no record
UA 594 United	MCI 08:13	IAH 10:27	16%	5%	3.3%	no record
UA 6113 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 18:20	IAH 20:40	14%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 6124 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 14:56	IAH 17:13	16%	6%	1.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON