Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 845 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 845 Southwest	MCI 09:45	IND 12:25	10%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 3961 Southwest	MCI 18:56	IND 21:25	28%	11%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 57m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	56m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	4h 05m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370	1h 55m New York	LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	5h 20m	94%	82%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	3h 02m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	7h 35m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	6h 19m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	6h 01m	96%	79%
United Details →	MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON