tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 36 at 22:41, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 36 Alaska MCI 22:41 JFK 02:19 21% 9% 2.0% no record
DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MCI 10:30 JFK 14:44 14% 9% 3.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 41m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 51m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 4h 33m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 7h 29m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 6h 47m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 2h 48m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 6h 57m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:44DL 2897 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 8h 42m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 8h 13m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:40 → BOS 13:44DL 675 3h 21m Boston BOS 17:05 → JFK 18:42DL 5814 · flown by Republic 8h 02m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:54DL 1470 46m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632 5h 11m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON