Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2001 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2001 MCI 05:25 → LAS 06:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4505 MCI 22:26 → LAS 23:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2001 Southwest	MCI 05:25	LAS 06:27	3%	1%	1.6%	no record
WN 2072 Southwest	MCI 07:00	LAS 08:02	5%	2%	3.5%	no record
WN 1702 Southwest	MCI 10:45	LAS 11:48	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 2148 Southwest	MCI 14:05	LAS 15:08	24%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 2633 Southwest	MCI 20:45	LAS 21:48	27%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 1915 Southwest	MCI 17:35	LAS 18:38	27%	9%	1.0%	no record
F9 4505 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 22:26	LAS 23:40	35%	13%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON