Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1045 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1045 MCI 06:35 → LAX 08:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4320 MCI 21:25 → LAX 22:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1045 Southwest	MCI 06:35	LAX 08:00	7%	3%	1.8%	no record
DL 2337 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:23	LAX 08:47	8%	5%	1.8%	95%
UA 5489 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 16:26	LAX 18:10	14%	6%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
DL 1517 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:55	LAX 17:20	15%	6%	1.1%	91%
WN 4320 Southwest	MCI 21:25	LAX 22:57	30%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON