Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 370 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 370 MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 2637 MCI 17:40 → LGA 21:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	5%	3%	4.0%	89%
WN 2635 Southwest	MCI 06:05	LGA 10:01	5%	2%	4.2%	no record
WN 2636 Southwest	MCI 11:30	LGA 15:25	16%	6%	2.2%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:55	LGA 22:46	24%	9%	3.4%	75%
WN 2637 Southwest	MCI 17:40	LGA 21:35	28%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON