Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2642 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2642 MCI 05:20 → MDW 06:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2950 MCI 20:30 → MDW 22:06 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2642 Southwest	MCI 05:20	MDW 06:57	4%	2%	2.3%	no record
WN 673 Southwest	MCI 08:20	MDW 09:56	6%	3%	3.4%	no record
WN 1664 Southwest	MCI 10:40	MDW 12:16	7%	3%	2.0%	no record
WN 3040 Southwest	MCI 12:35	MDW 14:11	12%	4%	1.9%	no record
WN 2859 Southwest	MCI 16:39	MDW 18:15	27%	12%	4.1%	no record
WN 489 Southwest	MCI 22:00	MDW 23:36	28%	9%	1.6%	no record
WN 2950 Southwest	MCI 20:30	MDW 22:06	29%	11%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON