tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 892 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 892 American Flight history → MCI 05:00 MIA 09:18 14% 5% 4.4% 91%
MQ 3710 Envoy MCI 17:08 MIA 21:32 29% 10% 2.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 09:07 → MIA 13:41DL 793 6h 18m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 28m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 15m 95% 66%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 7h 01m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 6h 31m 86% 65%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 6h 24m 95% 64%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370 1h 25m New York LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538 7h 24m 97% 61%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 33m Denver DEN 09:29 → MIA 15:24UA 1418 8h 24m 96% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 48m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 6h 04m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON