Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4150 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4150 Southwest	MCI 06:45	MKE 08:25	3%	1%	2.4%	no record
WN 1057 Southwest	MCI 20:55	MKE 22:34	19%	10%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	6h 14m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561	4h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:02 → MKE 15:19DL 8933	6h 06m	100%	83%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	3h 01m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836	7h 25m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → MKE 15:09DL 2152	7h 09m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370	1h 20m New York	LGA 11:10 → MKE 12:39DL 5613 · flown by Republic	6h 39m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	6h 57m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:10 → DTW 17:07DL 2741	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON