tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3973 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3973 Southwest MCI 06:30 MSY 08:35 4% 1% 2.9% no record
WN 2079 Southwest MCI 19:01 MSY 21:06 22% 11% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 58m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 39m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 12m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MSY 14:20DL 3157 6h 20m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 30m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 58m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:02 → MSY 15:44DL 8858 5h 01m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → MSY 10:36AA 1684 5h 05m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384 4h 00m Denver DEN 13:41 → MSY 17:25UA 250 8h 35m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:18 → DFW 19:03AA 3030 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:56 → MSY 21:37AA 2237 4h 19m 60% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON