Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4377 at 05:14 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–58%.

Safest bet that day YX 4377 MCI 05:14 → ORD 07:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2285 MCI 17:47 → ORD 19:14 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4377 Republic	MCI 05:14	ORD 07:02	7%	3%	3.3%	no record
OO 5680 SkyWest	MCI 06:02	ORD 07:40	11%	6%	4.1%	no record
UA 1491 United Flight history →	MCI 07:53	ORD 09:45	14%	6%	2.6%	86%
YX 3531 Republic	MCI 11:26	ORD 13:21	16%	5%	3.3%	no record
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:06	ORD 10:42	17%	7%	3.8%	80%
OO 5735 SkyWest	MCI 10:00	ORD 11:38	17%	8%	3.7%	no record
OO 6215 SkyWest	MCI 12:19	ORD 13:55	26%	15%	3.8%	no record
UA 5309 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:03	ORD 14:55	28%	18%	3.5%	76%
MQ 3517 Envoy	MCI 14:22	ORD 16:05	38%	14%	7.1%	no record
AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 16:07	ORD 18:04	40%	16%	5.8%	76%worse than usual
OO 6304 SkyWest	MCI 19:17	ORD 20:52	40%	23%	6.2%	no record
UA 1369 United	MCI 15:25	ORD 17:06	41%	20%	4.3%	no record
OO 5853 SkyWest	MCI 17:15	ORD 19:02	43%	23%	5.3%	no record
UA 303 United Flight history →	MCI 18:41	ORD 20:33	45%	22%	2.4%	75%worse than usual
AA 2285 American	MCI 17:47	ORD 19:14	58%	24%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON