Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:55, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 226 Alaska	MCI 18:14	PDX 20:01	27%	5%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 17m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:44DL 2897	2h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 05m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 19m	99%	84%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	1h 09m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:48UA 1247	5h 48m	93%	84%
United Details →	MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384	1h 46m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	6h 19m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	MCI 14:17 → SEA 16:17AS 418	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	8h 00m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391	9h 14m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 13m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	6h 11m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON