Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 946 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 946 American Flight history →	MCI 06:00	PHL 09:45	9%	4%	3.6%	91%
AA 1480 American	MCI 12:45	PHL 16:43	26%	7%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 20m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 45m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	7h 51m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	47m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	4h 21m	91%	81%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 39m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	8h 12m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 52m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 04m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 02m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 16:07 → ORD 18:04AA 3939 · flown by Envoy	59m Chicago	ORD 19:03 → PHL 22:08AA 1848	5h 01m	57%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON