Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4365 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4365 MCI 05:55 → PHX 06:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2654 MCI 18:40 → PHX 19:29 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4365 Southwest	MCI 05:55	PHX 06:43	5%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 983 Southwest	MCI 10:05	PHX 10:53	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 08:07	PHX 09:19	14%	5%	2.5%	92%
WN 2677 Southwest	MCI 13:15	PHX 14:03	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2101 American Flight history →	MCI 14:20	PHX 15:23	24%	8%	1.6%	56%
WN 2010 Southwest	MCI 20:55	PHX 21:43	27%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 2654 Southwest	MCI 18:40	PHX 19:29	27%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON