Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Pensacola on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 12m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640	5h 41m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	7h 13m	100%	80%
United Details →	MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384	1h 49m Denver	DEN 11:30 → PNS 15:30UA 8118	6h 40m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 20m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 13:18 → ATL 16:26DL 2747	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	6h 46m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	6h 09m	97%	72%
American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:03 → PNS 12:59AA 2863	7h 28m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 14:04 → CLT 17:29AA 1619	47m Charlotte	CLT 18:16 → PNS 19:10AA 5429 · flown by PSA	5h 06m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON