Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2657 at 08:35, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2657 Southwest	MCI 08:35	SAN 10:00	18%	3%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 15m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 29m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57DL 2105	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572	10h 16m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:44DL 2897	2h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 03m	99%	73%
United Details →	MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384	1h 34m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	5h 51m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924	8h 29m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:01 → SAN 19:36DL 712	9h 20m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:10 → DTW 17:07DL 2741	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 20:23 → SAN 22:01DL 700	9h 51m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 16:07 → ORD 18:05AA 3939 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 19:08 → SAN 21:49AA 1861	7h 42m	70%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON