Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2105 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2105 MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 418 MCI 14:17 → SEA 16:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2105 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	SEA 08:57	8%	3%	3.3%	87%
AS 563 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 06:02	SEA 08:05	9%	3%	2.5%	90%
AS 418 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 14:17	SEA 16:17	18%	4%	1.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	1h 03m Denver	DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348	5h 48m	93%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON