Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via LAX, leaving 15:55, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2051 United Flight history →	MCI 08:17	SFO 10:20	15%	7%	1.7%	94%
UA 561 United	MCI 17:32	SFO 19:28	30%	15%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 46m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 50m	98%	72%
United Details →	MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384	1h 40m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	6h 14m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	9h 42m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	100%	72%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489	10h 26m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:44DL 2897	2h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	6h 58m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	57m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	7h 54m	95%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:54DL 1470	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	7h 56m	67%	44%
United Details →	MCI 13:03 → ORD 14:55UA 5309 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → SFO 18:33UA 2437	7h 30m	74%	33%
United Details →	MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	7h 51m	58%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON