Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2897 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2897 MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2903 MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2897 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:05	SLC 08:44	7%	3%	1.8%	93%
DL 2882 Delta Flight history →	MCI 14:55	SLC 16:32	20%	6%	1.4%	84%
DL 2903 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:00	SLC 19:41	25%	8%	2.1%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON